20th May 2007 Stumble it!

Climate chaos? Don’t believe it

posted in Global Warming by themaiden |

Why? The 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley– known, rumor among his fellow ’skeptics’ has it, “to his wider family as ‘Mr Knowledge’”– says so, of course, and he’s made up the science to prove it. Isn’t that enough?

Not really. Monckton’s article is junk. He relies heavily upon the “medieval warm period”, which didn’t happen, he blames the sun, and he more or less attributes all of the science in favor of man made global warming to a kind of vast conspiracy. I especially love this last tactic.

Monckton does, rather ironically, report that “Dick Lindzen emailed me last week to say that constant repetition of wrong numbers doesn’t make them right.” Indeed.

There is nothing really new or surprising to Monckton’s article. He’s printed a string of pretty common, and well debunked, claims. My posts on the subject at tagged Global Warming, but don’t just take my word for it.

RealClimate, written by real climate scientists, writes:

This would not be of much concern if the WSJ wasn’t such an influential paper in the US. However, the extent of its isolation on this issue is evident from the amusing reliance on the error-prone Christopher Monckton. They quote him saying that the sea level rise predictions were much smaller than in IPCC TAR (no they weren’t), that the human contribution to recent changes has been ‘cut by a third’ (no it hasn’t), and that the Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) was written by politicians (no it wasn’t - the clue is in the name).


WSJ Editorial Board: Head Still Buried in the Sand

And in another place:

Sometimes on Realclimate we discuss important scientific uncertainties, and sometimes we try and clarify some subtle point or context, but at other times, we have a little fun in pointing out some of the absurdities that occasionally pass for serious ’science’ on the web and in the media. These pieces look scientific to the layperson (they have equations! references to 19th Century physicists!), but like cuckoo eggs in a nest, they are only designed to look real enough to fool onlookers and crowd out the real science. A cursory glance from anyone knowledgeable is usually enough to see that concepts are being mangled, logic is being thrown to the winds, and completetly unjustified conclusions are being drawn - but the tricks being used are sometimes a little subtle.

Two pieces that have recently drawn some attention fit this mould exactly. One by Christopher Monckton (a viscount, no less, with obviously too much time on his hands) which comes complete with supplematary ‘calculations’ using his own ‘M’ model of climate, and one on JunkScience.com (’What Watt is what’). Junk Science is a front end for Steve Milloy, long time tobacco, drug and oil industry lobbyist, and who has been a reliable source for these ‘cuckoo science’ pieces for years. Curiously enough, both pieces use some of the same sleight-of-hand to fool the unwary (coincidence?).

Cuckoo Science


William Connolley
– strangely enough, a real climate scientist– takes Monckton to task in Moncktons curious take on the SPM, which is a short and dense but good read in which Monckton’s claims are more or less reduced to nonsense.

Dr Stephan Harrison, Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography at the University of Exeter and Senior Research Associate at the Oxford University Centre for the Environment, addresses Monckton on the Bluffer’s Corner at TurnUpTheHeat, an article to which Monckton replied– apparently missing that the blog’s owner, George Monbiot, is not the man who wrote the article.

Hat-tip to Political Pariah- for pointing me to Mockton’s asinine article.

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There are currently 13 responses to “Climate chaos? Don’t believe it”

Why not let us know what you think by adding your own comment! Your opinion is as valid as anyone elses, so come on... let us know what you think.

  1. 1 On June 4th, 2007, Groxie » Blog Archive » Carnival of the Green #80 said:

    [...] John at Hell’s Handmaiden tears apart Christopher Monckton’s arguments discounting climate change. [...]

  2. 2 On June 5th, 2007, Deep Thought said:

    Holy! You go to the NOAA page that only quotes Mann to contend there was no MWP? Wow; that is gutsy. So you are writing off everyone from Khim to Jones, Schmidt, and Gavin, etc., based upon Mann 1998, Mann 1999, and - what? Jones and Mann 2004?

    So much for the Bransfield Basin ice cores, viniculture research, ocean sediment reasearch, and palynology, I suppose.

  3. 3 On June 5th, 2007, themaiden said:

    Deep Thought,

    Actually, Deep, you didn’t look very deep. The “medieval warming period” was 1) local and so hardly indicative of a global climate and 2) warm relative to adjacent years but not nearly as warm as claimed by the ’skeptics’ and not warm compared to today as claimed by the skeptics. The information isn’t hard to come by.

    Um… Deep, you named four people. How is that “writing off everyone”? Little bit of an overstatement isn’t it?

  4. 4 On June 5th, 2007, Deep Thought said:

    The four people I named are all authors of “post-Mann” peer-reviewed articles that, essentially, prove that Mann and Jones cherry-picked data. The scores of peer-reviewed papers before Mann, etc. that demonstrated the MWP/LIA span disciplines from climatology to history to astronomy, and peer-reviewed papers *since* Mann are likewise inter-disciplinary and peer-reviewed as well as refuting Mann’s data - thus, my statement.
    The Bransfield ice cores (as well as the EPICA cores reveal that the MWP/LIA were seen in both Europe and the Antartic - hardly “regional”. Toss in some Alaskan glacial ice core readings that also mirror the warm/cool trends, and well - it is only regional if something that affected all four planetary quadrants is “regional”. As I said: methods as diverse as palynology and historical viniculture research all demonstrate the existence of the MWP and LIA. And no climatologist, none at all, refutes the fact of cyclical ice ages in Earth’s climate record, right?

    You want to convince me that the current warming trend is anthropogenic? Fine, let’s talk carbon loads, albedo, and just how much sulfate aerosols affected the cooling of the 1965-1985 period. Let’s debate solar loads, cloud cover variations, and the various models in play. But don’t try to convince me that the MWP/LIA cycle, one of the most successful examples of how inter-disciplinary research can provide a more precise picture of the world (and one of the best-documented long-term climate events ever) didn’t happen! Especially when you have to refute the National Academy of Sciences’ most recent statements about the LIA.

    Further, if you want to support Mann’s work, please use a source other than RealClimate - after all, Mann is their most prominent contributor!

  5. 5 On June 5th, 2007, themaiden said:

    DeepThought,

    Just for clarity, you do realize, right, that by “doesn’t exist” I mean “doesn’t exist as any significant feature of global climate feature as used in the arguments of global warming deniers”? I don’t mean that, literally, there are no average temperature changes over that time frame. I assumed this was obvious from the context and from the other posts from this blog that I cited. And it was certainly obvious from my first reply to you. There is a hump in the temperatures around 900 or so followed by a drop. (I didn’t actually say anything about the LIA. I’m not sure why you are leaping at that one.) There is is a steep rise starting in about 1900 and by 1941 or so it passed the medieval high. More importantly, the sharpness of the rise is nothing like what is seen around 900, so it doesn’t make sense to attribute the two to the same cause, as the skeptics would have it. Furthermore, if you look at the graph, most– not all– of the reconstructions show pretty shallow rise and fall– in other words, they show nothing that could even come close to “offsetting” the modern warming.

    Second and not to be rude, if you have support for you statements, please cite them and cite them fully enough that I can find them without crawling the web for hours. At the very least, provide the name of the damned article. Vague hand-wavy citations are the tools of charlatans. You don’t want to give the wrong impression. Besides, I get quickly annoyed when people expect me to not only read material supporting their position– fair enough– but also to go out and find that material for them.

    I know of a number of attempts to discredit Mann– I know, I should say, of a number of failed attempts. Which do you mean?

  6. 6 On June 6th, 2007, Deep Thought said:

    Forgive me, but when you state “…He relies heavily upon the “medieval warm period”, which didn’t happen…” and the link within the quotes points to an article that states “…The idea of a global or hemispheric “Medieval Warm Period” that was warmer than today however, has turned out to be incorrect.” I think my conclusion that you were arguing that the MWP didn’t happen is, uh, rather easy to make and easily defensible on my part.

    Also, forgive me if I assumed that you, someone who spends much more time than I writing about global warming, were already familiar with EPICA, the Bransfield ice cores, or the Khim, Yoon, Kang, Bahk (2002) paper disclosing the strong evidence that the MWP/LIA sequence was global.

    http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/ap/qr/2002/00000058/00000003/art02371

    In my own defense, citing the names of the authors of papers or the specific evidence referenced is not ‘vague and hand-wavy’ in my book. If it would take you hours to find info on the EPICA cores, I suggest a new search engine for you

    http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=Jmc&q=EPICA+cores+&btnG=Search

    Or that you start here

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/domec/domec_epica_data.html

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3792209.stm

    and even

    http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1110

    {Why not? If you want to fall back to RealClimate, please also reference Climateaudit]

    The intensity and magnitude of the MWP are still up in the air, as it were. Some proxies seem to indicate the height of the MWP was warmer than now, others that it was not. The EPICA cores indicate that previous interglacial periods were much warmer than contemporary temps, other long-term paleoclimate proxies don’t show that or are less extreme in their indications.

    Since you were free in implying that I am a charlatan, let me be equally blunt: the fact that you write about global warming as much as you do and didn’t know about EPICA and Bransfield off the top of your head implies that you need to get more of your data from original sources.

  7. 7 On June 6th, 2007, Deep Thought said:

    May I ask why my earlier comment seems to be deleted?

  8. 8 On June 6th, 2007, Deep Thought said:

    OK - my mistake - my cache hadn’t cleared, I guess.

  9. 9 On June 6th, 2007, themaiden said:

    DeepThought,

    One of your comments was flagged for moderation– probably because of the number of links.

    I am not going to argue with you about what I meant. Not your fault. Its mine. I realized the problem and I corrected it the only way I am able– by telling you. I tried to clarify in my first response to you– “warm relative to adjacent years but not nearly as warm as claimed by the ’skeptics’ and not warm compared to today as claimed by the skeptics” and I tried again latter.

    And no, last names and general area of research are not sufficient. I can find ‘Bransfield’ and ‘EPICA’. And I can find articles by people with the names you gave. What I can’t find is the particular articles and the particular points in those articles that you want me to think about. That is the problem, not lack of information. I don’t have time to try to 1) find the articles you allude to 2) read your mind to extract what you find significant in those articles and 3) construct your argument for you so that I may 4) then respond to it.

    Now, I’ve read what you suggested. What point do you want to make? That we don’t really know much?

    The intensity and magnitude of the MWP are still up in the air, as it were. Some proxies seem to indicate the height of the MWP was warmer than now, others that it was not. The EPICA cores indicate that previous interglacial periods were much warmer than contemporary temps, other long-term paleoclimate proxies don’t show that or are less extreme in their indications.

    That is quite where I started, but it isn’t from it either. The MWP doesn’t look like a significant enough event to invoke as a counter-point to modern warming.

  10. 10 On June 8th, 2007, Deep Thought said:

    We have different opinions on describing referenced data; fair enough. You asked for more info., I am more than willing to oblige.

    The point I was originally making was simple - one of your three refutations to Monckton’s piece was that the MWP “didn’t happen”. Sorry - it did. As you admit, the debate over the intensity of the MWP is still up in the air, but it is an important part of any discussion of global warming.

    I must admit that I am fascinated that virtually all of your refutations of Monckton in this piece/thread come from RealClimate or its contributors. Even the NOAA article is a reference to Mann, etc.

  11. 11 On June 8th, 2007, themaiden said:

    Deep Thought,

    My criteria for referenced data really all boil down to my being able to find things. My impatience over the matter stems from my arguing too much with creationists who tend to cite as obscurely as possible, apparently to disguise the fact that more often than not the citations are either ‘ghost’ citations or were greatly misrepresented by the people citing them.

    Yes, I did write “it didn’t happen”. I then explained what I meant by that statement, that the MWP was “warm relative to adjacent years but not nearly as warm as claimed by the ’skeptics’ and not warm compared to today as claimed by the skeptics”. The NOAA page I cited even specifies something similar– “The idea of a global or hemispheric “Medieval Warm Period” that was warmer than today however, has turned out to be incorrect.” Take a look at Monckton’s graph, which is eerily like a fifteen year old IPCC graph. That huge medieval hump (relative to modern temperatures) on his graph isn’t supportable, as far as I can tell. Most reconstructions give something more like this, with current temperatures clearly higher than any medieval hump. It was at this kind of “medieval warm period” that my statement was aimed. That kind of event didn’t happen, though something more mild could have.

  12. 12 On June 11th, 2007, Deep Thought said:

    Sorry, IMHO, actual MWP peak temps are rather more up in the air than you claim. The sargasso sea cores indicate that the peak temps of the MWP era were higher than current temps

    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/274/5292/1503?rbfvrToken=b3527f8140d1ddfd7f0fdac765ac49b01f52eacb

    And the EPICA cores I linked to earlier support the same conclusion. Even more critically, the real contention isn’t ‘is the Earth getting warmer?’ because it certainly is. The real question is ‘is it truly anthropogenic?’. At that point, even if the current temp is higher than the MWP it means nothing. Interglacial temps have been higher than the current temp before. Indeed, the EPICA group thinks the evidence indicates that the Earth is currently in a long-term interglacial period of unusually high - but naturally forced - temps.

    http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v429/n6992/abs/nature02599.html

  13. 13 On June 11th, 2007, themaiden said:

    Deep Thought,

    I’m not surprised that some reconstructions show higher temperatures than others. I am also not surprised that one of those higher temperature reconstructions was based upon data from the Sargasso Sea, which tends to be warm. I’d expect warmer estimates from warmer regions, just like I’d expect cooler temperatures from cooler regions. More importantly though, the Sargasso Sea paper does not look like a global reconstruction. It looks like a reconstruction of surface temperatures at the Sargasso Sea, which indicates that there may have been some kind of event in the Sargasso Sea and by inference large parts of the Northern hemisphere as well– fine. It doesn’t say whether the change was global nor does it really give a global average temperature. You, and Climate Audit as well actually, are taking local (albeit large local) for global.

    I can’t find any official EPICA statements to back up what you claim.

    You are correct, though, the real question is “how much are we responsible?” EPICA’s CO2 numbers do not look good for the argument that we have nothing to do with rising temperatures.

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