Stumble it!Foreign Policy’s Blind Eye to Human Nature
posted in Global Warming by themaiden |Foreign Policy is pushing what I can only read as a tragically pie-in-the-sky analysis of world politics in an age of global warming. The point, summarized conveniently by the article’s author, is that “Corrupt, tyrannical governments—not changes in the Earth’s climate—will be to blame for the coming resource wars.” and again, “arguing that climate change is a root cause of conflict lets tyrannical governments off the hook.”
In a sense, of course, the author Idean Salehyan is correct. No one really has to go to war, no matter how bad things get and of course, “responsible, accountable governments, however, can prevent local squabbles from spiraling into broader violence, while mitigating the risk of some severe environmental calamities.” Certainly, responsible, accountable governments can go a long way toward achieving such goals. The disturbing part of the argument is the suggestion, the underlying and unwritten assumption, that we have a preponderance of responsible, accountable governments on this Earth. We don’t. We have some moderately responsible government, if, even, is possible to make that calculation. We have some horribly irresponsible governments, and we have a great many in between the two extremes. Do we bet that as conditions worsen, by some miracle human governments improve? That is a gamble that doesn’t make any sense.
I wonder if this piece is really just a move in a game of ideological chess? I wonder if the talk about global warming is a set-up, a hook, for a not-so-real-world, not-so-eyes-wide-open appeal to democratic ideal?
To be sure, resource scarcity and environmental degradation can lead to social frictions. As Nobel laureate Amartya Sen has observed, no democracy has ever experienced a famine. Politicians who fear the wrath of voters usually do their utmost to prevent foreseeable disasters and food shortages. Accountable leaders are also better at providing public goods such as clean air and water to their citizens.
I am a strong defender of democracy, but this is a perfect world picture of democracy. We do not live in a perfect world. Politicians fear voters only briefly at best. A disaster twenty years down the line is no concern of yours if you are out of office in eight.
Third, dire predictions about the coming environmental wars imply that climate change requires military solutions—a readiness to forcibly secure one’s own resources, prevent conflict spillovers, and perhaps gain control of additional resources. But focusing on a military response diverts attention from simpler, and far cheaper, adaptation mechanisms. Technological improvements in agriculture, which have yet to make their way to many poor farmers, have dramatically increased food output in the United States without significantly raising the amount of land under cultivation. Sharing simple technologies with developing countries, such as improved irrigation techniques and better seeds and fertilizers, along with finding alternative energy supplies and new freshwater sources, is likely to be far more effective and cost saving in the long run than arms and fortifications.
Better living through chemistry? Anyone? I grew up hearing promise of technological miracle after technological miracle. Most have not been fulfilled. Some have, but most have not. How reasonable is the bet now?
Let’s talk about cash. What “technological improvements in agriculture”, I wonder? Tractors? Expensive, GM seeds? These will be given away? I don’t think so. I certainly support such efforts to assist people, but it is foolish to think that the nature of humanity will change radically in the next few decades. It is foolish, in fact, to pretend that humanity is the rational animal it has considered itself to be for thousands of years now.
And…
States affected by climate change can move people out of flood plains and desert areas, promote better urban planning, and adopt more efficient resource-management systems.
Moving people is a bit of a problem isn’t it? We have no more continents to discover.
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